Recently,  Johnson City replaced all paper-towel dispensers in lavatories of city buildings with electric hand dryers

题目

Recently, Johnson City replaced all paper-towel dispensers in lavatories of city buildings with electric hand dryers . The city estimates that in about fifteen years the amount that would otherwise have been spent on the purchase and disposal of paper towels will begin to exceed the cost of purchasing, installing, and operating the electric dryers. Therefore, despite high initial costs, replacing paper towels with electric hand dryers will be to the city’s long-term economic advantage.

Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?

选项

The cost of repairing electric hand dryers will be the same fifteen years from now as it is today.

Almost every business in Johnson City that has replaced paper towel dispensers with electric hand dryers has found the replacement to be to its long-term economic advantage.

The city will not, within ten years, have to replace most of the recently installed electric hand dryers with new dryers.

The number of electric hand dryers recently installed in Johnson City is not significantly greater than the number of paper towel dispensers removed.

The initial cost involved in installing paper towel dispensers is less than that of installing electric hand dryers.

解析

最近，约翰逊市将所有市政大楼洗手间内的纸巾分配器都换成了电动干手器。该市估计，大约15年后，原本用于购买和处理纸巾的费用将开始超过购买、安装和运营电动干手器的成本。因此，尽管初始成本高，但用电动干手器取代纸巾对该市来说将具有长期经济优势。 - **论点**：用电动干手器取代纸巾对该市有长期经济优势。 - **论据**：约15年后，原本购买和处理纸巾的费用将超购买、安装和运营电动干手器的成本。 - **正确答案方向**：该假设需要确保在15年的这个长期过程中，不会出现影响电动干手器成本使其超过预期的其他因素，以此来支持论点中所说的长期经济优势这一结论。 - **A选项**：即使15年后维修电动干手器的成本与现在不同，也不确定是升高还是降低以及变化幅度大小等，所以无法确切得知这对长期经济优势有何影响，不能作为必要假设。 - **B选项**：其他企业的情况不能必然类推到约翰逊市，每个企业面临的具体条件和成本结构等可能不同，所以不能作为该市得出长期经济优势结论的依据。 - **C选项**：如果10年内就得更换大部分新安装的电动干手器，那么后续成本会大幅增加，就可能不会有长期经济优势了，所以该项是必要假设，排除了会使成本增加从而影响长期经济优势的因素。 - **D选项**：安装的数量与是否有长期经济优势并无直接关联，重点在于成本的比较和变化，而不是数量的对比。 - **E选项**：初始成本的高低已经是已知信息，且重点在于长期的经济优势，而不是初始成本的比较，所以该项不能作为假设。

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