题目
Scientist: Cross-sections of stalactites---calcite formations deposited on cave ceilings by seeping water-can reveal annual variations in rainfall in particular areas over hundreds and thousands of years. We often found that when-according to these cross-sections- drought occurred in a particular area, it coincided with the collapse of an ancient society in that area. I hypothesize that drought reduced agricultural productivity in these areas thereby leaving these societies without the resources needed to handle internal stresses and external threats.
Which of the following, if true, would most weaken the support for the scientist's hypothesis?
选项
A.Many droughts indicated in the cross-sections of stalactites do not correspond with the collapse of a society in that area.
B.Information from the cross-sections of stalactites alone cannot reveal the level of agricultural output in an area at a particular time.
C.Most of the societies that collapsed during droughts did so when internal power struggles coincided with military raids from neighboring societies.
D.Most of the societies that collapsed during droughts maintained large stockpiles of food and water at the time of their collapse.
E.Information from stalactites also suggests that the collapse of some societies coincided with periods of abnormally high rainfall.
解析
科学家:钟乳石(由渗透水在洞穴顶部沉积形成的方解石构造)的横截面能够揭示特定地区数百年乃至数千年间的年降雨量变化。我们经常发现,根据这些横截面显示,当某一特定地区发生干旱时,它恰好与该地区古代社会的崩溃相吻合。我假设干旱降低了这些地区的农业生产力,从而使这些社会没有资源来应对内部压力和外部威胁。
- **论点**:干旱导致古代社会崩溃,原因是干旱降低了农业生产力,使社会缺乏应对内外部压力的资源。
- **论据**:钟乳石横截面显示干旱时期与古代社会崩溃时期相吻合。
- **正确答案方向**:能够削弱“干旱导致社会崩溃”这一因果关系的选项,比如找到其他导致社会崩溃的原因、表明干旱没有对社会产生足以导致其崩溃的影响等。
- **A选项**:钟乳石横截面显示的许多干旱情况与该地区社会的崩溃并不相符。该项只是指出存在一些干旱但社会没崩溃的情况,但并不能有力地反驳“当社会崩溃时,是干旱导致的”这一论点,不明确这些情况与所讨论的特定社会崩溃案例的关联,所以削弱力度有限,故A项不正确。
- **B选项**:仅从钟乳石横截面的信息无法揭示某一地区特定时间的农业产出水平。虽然不能直接从钟乳石得知农业产出,但并不能否定干旱与社会崩溃之间可能存在的因果关系,因为还有其他可能的关联途径,所以该项无法削弱,故B项不正确。
- **C选项**:大多数在干旱期间崩溃的社会,是在内部权力斗争与邻国军事突袭同时发生时崩溃的。虽然提到了其他因素,但并没有排除干旱的影响,有可能是干旱和这些内外部因素共同导致了社会崩溃,所以该项无法有力地削弱原论点,故C项不正确。
- **D选项**:大多数在干旱期间崩溃的社会在崩溃时仍维持着大量的食物和水的储备。这说明即使在干旱时期,社会也有足够的资源(食物和水),那么就不是因为干旱导致农业生产力下降从而使社会没有资源应对内外部压力而崩溃的,直接削弱了论点中干旱与社会崩溃之间的因果联系,故D项正确。
- **E选项**:钟乳石的信息还表明一些社会的崩溃与异常高的降雨时期相吻合。这里说的是高降雨时期社会崩溃,与论点讨论的干旱导致社会崩溃无关,话题不一致,无法削弱,故E项不正确。
综上所述,正确答案是D选项。