Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision

题目

Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast?

选项

The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.

Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.

As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.

Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.

With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.

解析

气象学家称，只要能设计出一个包含大气所有复杂性的精确数学模型，他们就能精准预报天气。但这是个无意义的吹嘘（无法评估）——因为任何预报失误都会被归咎于“模型缺陷”，无法验证吹嘘是否成立。 - **核心论点**：气象学家的观点是“有精确的大气模型就能精准预报天气”；质疑者认为这是吹嘘（因预报失误可归咎于模型，无法验证）。 - **正确答案方向**：需削弱“有精确模型就能精准预报天气”的逻辑，即说明**即使有模型，也因其他不可控因素（如无法量化的过程），无法实现精准预报**，或说明“模型无法包含所有复杂性”（因存在无法量化的因素）。 - **选项A**：地球接收的太阳能量被密切监测且非恒定。太阳能量的监测状态与“模型能否精准预报天气”无关（模型需模拟大气，太阳能量是输入，但未涉及模型的局限性）。排除。 - **选项B**：火山爆发、化石燃料燃烧等**无法精确量化的过程**，对大气构成有重大持续影响。气象学家的模型需“包含所有复杂性”，但这些过程**无法精确量化**，因此模型无法将其“精确建模”（即模型无法真正包含所有复杂性）。这说明：即使设计了模型，也因存在无法量化的因素（模型未包含这些复杂性），无法精准预报天气。直接削弱了“有精确模型就能精准预报”的逻辑。正确。 - **选项C**：模型改进需更多计算机。模型所需的计算机数量与“模型能否精准预报天气”无关（讨论的是硬件需求，非模型的预报能力）。排除。 - **选项D**：构建好模型的前提是大量精确数据。气象学家的观点是“有模型就能预报”，而该选项讨论的是“构建模型的前提”，与“模型的预报能力”无关。排除。 - **选项E**：现有模型对大规模/局部天气的预报精度差异。现有模型的预报表现与“精确模型（含所有复杂性）能否精准预报”无关（气象学家讨论的是“理想模型”，非现有模型）。排除。答案：B

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