题目
Alice, Benjamin, and Carol each try independently to win a carnival game. If their individual probabilities for success are , , and , respectively, what is the probability that exactly two of the three players will win but one will lose?
解析
\[
\begin{align*}
P(\text{恰好2人获胜}) &= P(A\text{胜且}B\text{胜且}C\text{败} \cup B\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}A\text{败} \cup A\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}B\text{败}) \\
&= P(A\text{胜且}B\text{胜且}C\text{败}) + P(B\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}A\text{败}) + P(A\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}B\text{败})
\end{align*}
\]
#### 分别计算各项概率
1. 计算\(P(A\text{胜且}B\text{胜且}C\text{败})\)
\[
\begin{align*}
P(A\text{胜且}B\text{胜且}C\text{败}) &= P(A\text{胜}) \times P(B\text{胜}) \times P(C\text{败}) \\
&= \frac{1}{5} \times \frac{3}{8} \times \frac{5}{7} \\
&= \frac{15}{280}
\end{align*}
\]
2. 计算\(P(B\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}A\text{败})\)
\[
\begin{align*}
P(B\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}A\text{败}) &= P(B\text{胜}) \times P(C\text{胜}) \times P(A\text{败}) \\
&= \frac{3}{8} \times \frac{2}{7} \times \frac{4}{5} \\
&= \frac{24}{280}
\end{align*}
\]
3. 计算\(P(A\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}B\text{败})\)
\[
\begin{align*}
P(A\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}B\text{败}) &= P(A\text{胜}) \times P(C\text{胜}) \times P(B\text{败}) \\
&= \frac{1}{5} \times \frac{2}{7} \times \frac{5}{8} \\
&= \frac{10}{280}
\end{align*}
\]
#### 汇总计算最终概率
\[
\begin{align*}
P(\text{恰好2人获胜}) &= \frac{15}{280} + \frac{24}{280} + \frac{10}{280} \\
&= \frac{49}{280} \\
&= \frac{7}{40}
\end{align*}
\]
**答案**:\(\boldsymbol{E}\)