题目

Alice, Benjamin, and Carol each try independently to win a carnival game. If their individual probabilities for success are , , and , respectively, what is the probability that exactly two of the three players will win but one will lose?

选项

A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

解析

\[ \begin{align*} P(\text{恰好2人获胜}) &= P(A\text{胜且}B\text{胜且}C\text{败} \cup B\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}A\text{败} \cup A\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}B\text{败}) \\ &= P(A\text{胜且}B\text{胜且}C\text{败}) + P(B\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}A\text{败}) + P(A\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}B\text{败}) \end{align*} \] #### 分别计算各项概率 1. 计算\(P(A\text{胜且}B\text{胜且}C\text{败})\) \[ \begin{align*} P(A\text{胜且}B\text{胜且}C\text{败}) &= P(A\text{胜}) \times P(B\text{胜}) \times P(C\text{败}) \\ &= \frac{1}{5} \times \frac{3}{8} \times \frac{5}{7} \\ &= \frac{15}{280} \end{align*} \] 2. 计算\(P(B\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}A\text{败})\) \[ \begin{align*} P(B\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}A\text{败}) &= P(B\text{胜}) \times P(C\text{胜}) \times P(A\text{败}) \\ &= \frac{3}{8} \times \frac{2}{7} \times \frac{4}{5} \\ &= \frac{24}{280} \end{align*} \] 3. 计算\(P(A\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}B\text{败})\) \[ \begin{align*} P(A\text{胜且}C\text{胜且}B\text{败}) &= P(A\text{胜}) \times P(C\text{胜}) \times P(B\text{败}) \\ &= \frac{1}{5} \times \frac{2}{7} \times \frac{5}{8} \\ &= \frac{10}{280} \end{align*} \] #### 汇总计算最终概率 \[ \begin{align*} P(\text{恰好2人获胜}) &= \frac{15}{280} + \frac{24}{280} + \frac{10}{280} \\ &= \frac{49}{280} \\ &= \frac{7}{40} \end{align*} \] **答案**:\(\boldsymbol{E}\)
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